Hi I’m George Spyropoulos and here with Kostas Antoniadis and Paul Otis and we are very fortunate to have the opportunity to speak with Mr. Nikos Lygeros a strategic analyst and geopolitical expert.

We have a range of questions to ask him tonight which hopefully will bring some light to the situation that is unfolding at the moment in Europe.

QUESTION

First question which will help us understand the background to the situation: How did this all come about? Where did this situation begin? For many of us it was out of the blue, especially here in Australia we don’t have a good grip on the situation. What is the background of the situation?

ANSWER

So the strategic background of the situation is rather complex because we have to go back many years before. In fact after the fall of the Berlin wall and of course after the fall of the Soviet Union and after that we have to think about how is the narrative of Russia, for example, about USA. So all the time they are speaking about aggression, they are speaking about imperialism and at the end of the procedure we don’t know what is true, what is fake news, what is propaganda.

Let me remind you of some dates, it’s important. For me the most important date for Russia is in fact 2002 because at that time for Russia the idea was the following: We have to fight to exist. It’s rather strange because it is 10 years after the decline of the Soviet Union but this is the point for them. After that they are thinking in 2004 that US chooses color revolution. So everything is a color revolution for Russian people is in fact in their mind it is the intervention of US. They don’t think that there are some people, hear and there that want freedom. They don’t care about that. They are only, so they expect only one King, the US, so they think, all the time, that everything can be explained by the position of the U.S, especially in 2004 because as you remember at that time we have the process of European Union, the process of NATO so they think that in fact US interferes in Russian internal affairs and it’s rather strange because that is how they think like all the time and it is quite different from us, I mean for Australia, for Europe, it is totally different.

So after 2007 Russia is simply for them defending itself. The problem seems to be in 2008 that is why we have the invasion of Georgia because for them in fact they feel that US is everywhere around Russia. They started the invasion in Georgia just to say stop. At the end of this process especially in 2012 they think that the West is punishing Russia through sanctions, that is their point. After that because they are thinking the West is trying to use Russia to justify its failures. But that is also wrong. They think that in 2016 the West is in decline so they are very happy after 2018 because now for their thought, for their propaganda “everything is fine, now we are again multipolar” as a geopolitical concept. So for them Ukraine is the next step. So the big idea for the previous time, is not an expansion of Russia, no, is it not even the Empire of Russia, no, it is not only Soviet mentation, it is in fact a revenge. They are thinking that because they lost the Cold War, especially Putin is trying to prove to everybody that now he is the new king and can change the world. He can threaten Ukraine, also Moldavia also Finland and Sweden without a problem because nobody is going to say ‘You shouldn’t say that’. So he accuses also neutrality because for Russia to be neutral is against Russia so they changed also Switzerland which is very impressive as a phenomenon because Switzerland is very attached to this neutrality and right now we see also Germany has changed position about that especially for the fighting system against this artificial neutrality and they say that the West has to have a position, a new position. For me it is not just a dispute or a conflict between West and East, it’s wrong. For me right now it’s Mankind against barbarity. We are free countries we are democratic countries and we don’t have to say yes to everything because we also have innocent people, innocent counties. And right now because you mention before also Moldavia don’t forget this, Transnistria, they are going to use it too because it’s very close to Moldavia, it is between Ukraine and Moldavia. We are not talking about this, as I know some people form this country, which is not recognized officially but it’s there and so remember that before all these events we had some plans about this new kind of struggle we had all the plans that we are going to see right now and maybe in the next days already prepared in January so I can show you with maps that we have some publication in America but also in Germany with maps and we have the proof that the scenario of January was in fact a reality for February and March. So don’t be so innocent in Australia, everything was prepared they tried to justify something which is impossible so they try to speak about genocide, they try to speak about a lack of freedom they have to protect their guys. No, not at all, nothing is true. In fact you can see now that we are not talking about the autonomous region we are talking about all of Ukraine. And it is not all about Ukraine, not only Ukraine but also about Europe.

QUESTION

Just clarifying, so despite everything that was said by Putin in February you are saying that this particular invasion was planned from January there were maps showing exactly what was to happen.

ANSWER

Yes correct, we have in fact some plans, we have three (3) maps about that, we can just say it, not show it but remember the first time we are talking about Donetsk and Luhansk but in fact in the map you can find it, you can see that we are in the following phase. For example, for Russia we have some targets. The target for the strike was Dnipro, was also Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchuk, Kharkiv and also of course Kyiv.

So what I’m talking about is the whole plan of January was, attack and strike on the right side of the river Dnipro and not only for the autonomous region. In fact, the autonomous region was a pretext. They wanted to say something about that but it was a position to be inside Ukraine and to go further in and to use the same strategy as the Nazi saying, we have to be there because we need space and we don’t care about you. We have to be there, we are now here, not there, meaning not only Crimea and we can go to Kharkiv, we can also go to the nuclear station, it’s normal for us. You know, we have to say stop, on time.

We are going to wait, for what? Churchill, to say stop at the end of the process, with all the occupation of Eastern Europe or do we have to say, stop now? The position of Europe and NATO is very clear right now. It is We have to say stop, now. So we already have forces in Poland but also in Rumania, from the US, from France, also from Britain and we are ready in fact to protect our Allies but the problem right now for me and also for Humanity is that Ukraine is not in NATO, Ukraine is not in the European Union but we have to protect them. It’s not just a country to be sacrificed to understand what the position of a dictator is. Because you know Garry Kasparov, explained it and said ‘Stop saying just President’ because the words are very important this is not a President just because not all the Russians are with him, they are against him, they don’t want this fire, this war, nor this operation. To give some explanation about that, normally we have several levels, this is of course the specialty of Apostolos but just to remind everybody these details: We have the tactical level, we have the operational level and the strategic level. After that we have the grand strategy. But for the three, in fact right now we are thinking of that as obvious, but it is not, it was a creation of Soviet Union to use the word Operational. Before we had only tactics and strategy. The Soviet Union created that which is called Operation. So it was an official creation of Soviet Union. Now we accept this term for all the strategy and all specialists are using it but in fact it was a creation of that time. Now if you see the details, George, you will see that in Russia they never say war, they never say invasion they say special operation. So for them it is not the application for big strategy, it is just a special operation to Ukraine. The grand strategy is in fact Europe, so that is why they say something that is very important. “Don’t do something with NATO to Finland and Sweden”, which is incredible because they are already European countries, they are free, they have free will and democracy and you can’t say that but he does say it.

So now we have to take a position about that, stop neutrality and say if you have a such a problem which in fact it is a war and nothing less than that. It is not a special operation because we can use this term for Crimea. Yes, it’s possible, it’s already at the limit but now we have an attack to all of Ukraine. So it is not a special operation. For Ukraine it is a war and an invasion. Because as being also greeks, we know exactly what it means because Attilas was an operation in ‘74 it was not a war. There was no declaration of war. It was just an invasion. And we know the result right  now in Cyprus. We have the same problem in Ukraine but there is a big difference. In Cyprus there was one target. Turkey never mentioned anything about other countries outside of Cyprus. They didn’t say, for example, I am here now in Cyprus and so be careful Egypt, be careful Lebanon, be careful Greece. No, they didn’t say that. But now, in Russia that is what they are saying: We are now in Ukraine but we will be in Moldavia, be careful in Finland, be careful in Sweden. It is a totally different position and that is why we have to take our position and fight again in this struggle because we are righteous.

QUESTION

Just to cap off the background: You are saying that many of the Russian people are against this so-called operation part of the reason being that they can’t call it anything else or they will be jailed but why is this such a personal operation for Putin specifically when a lot of the Russian people are against it?

ANSWER

Because in fact, he doesn’t care about people. Putin is a dictator, and he is only talking about geopolitics and as a spy, because it was his job, he thinks that the world can be defined with this Soviet mentation. SO for many years he was a believer of the soviet system, he saw that it was impossible to sustain it, it was a defeat. For him this was something very bad and now he is trying to correct this. But in his mind he is not someone who believes in history, he has his history and his history is propaganda of the soviet system. So for him, especially for him, everything after the fall of the Soviet Union is a problem and that is why he reminds me of Hitler you was saying that the First War was like a diktat so we have to fight, as our new Germany, our Nazi, our Reich. Now Putin is using the same vocabulary, the same ideas. Russia should be a great country, it has to be a great country and to be one it’s necessary, in fact, to invade all the obstructions. Because for him Ukraine is only an obstruction. So in his grand strategy, he wants the control of Europe. He wants to say to the US to go home, he also wants Europe to be the Small brother. He thinks that he has to be the Big brother of Europe, but we don’t need this Big Brother.

QUESTION

We know that Putin was prepared to invade, do you think Europe, EU and NATO have done enough to protect Ukraine so far? Where do you think that Ukraine stands now against Russia without any help from the West, so far?

ANSWER

I think, for example that the US has done enough and sufficiently in an efficient way to have made good moves, strategic moves about the situation. For Europe it was more difficult because we are not prepared for that, we are not a military system, we are only democratic countries. we are talking about politics and sometimes about geopolitics. But even for the foreign affairs we have problem in having the same opinion. So for us it was more difficult because we have to solve the first impact and to say that we have a problem now. Remember the movie “Houston, now we have a problem…”Because we have a problem, we have to decide something. And for me it was very good to decide, all together, the same thing, that we have to protect Ukrainian people. But the problem is do Ukrainian people have the time to wait more, now? No. So we have to be more aggressive in our measures but also to be closer to Ukrainian people because for us it is just the first domino. So when we have all the people with whom we have problems like Ukrainian people and you have to protect them before because we have to think in fact our next move before the present to have the time to respond. And now the position is the following, we have Ukrainian people who are fighting and really in a heroic manner because it was a surprise also for the Russian people. Don’t forget that for them as a special operation they thought it was only an expansion of what they have done in Crimea, it was wrong. and we can see it, they are still thinking, even now that it’s a problem to solve in a few days. But we see that we have already done 10 days while before it was a plan for two, because they wanted to use the blitzkrieg system but it was a disaster. So they didn’t manage to do it right and correctly because the weren’t ready. Because it wasn’t only special forces, it was the general army and in the big army not everybody is a specialist. So they have many friction problems, logistics and that is why they did something good for them only in two points but for the others they have many problems and many victims. That is why I am now saying that Ukraine has to fight, not alone, with us, with our help, because we do have to help these people and say to Russia “Be careful, don’t push it, because we are here”. Maybe in the mind of Putin it is very clear that Russia is a bigger country than Ukraine especially for military operation but he knows the NATO is more powerful. So it is a problem of decision for us, not of US-the United States, a private joke- to decide if we really want to be on the right side of history or to say ‘It’s not our problem’ but it may become our problem for the next countries. So for me, in strategy we have to fight now to avoid other problems and that’ why you see Baltic counties, Latvia Estonia, Lithuania also Poland, as well as Finland and Sweden are now together with Ukraine, because all these countries know the next step. So we have to stop this dictator now.

QUESTION

Professor Lygeros, here in Australia so far in this war we’ ve seen that the Ukrainian people have stood up and they are true heroes. President Zelensky especially, the way he’s conducting the operations from the ground with his people, we do believe that the Russians thought they’d finish it off in about 2 days but it’s gone a different way for them. So right now the ukrainian people are showing the world what it is to be a patriot in your country in a free and democratic country so what can the world do now to put a stop to what is occurring, still nearly a week, a week and a half into this Russian invasion?

ANSWER

For me it is rather simple. If you prove with your words that we now agree that Ukrainians are in fact fighting like heroes but even heroes need help. The position is very clear Ukraine is Europe so now Europe should be Ukraine and it means that in reality we have to fight with Ukraine as if it was a country of the European Union and a country of NATO. We have to do it now and not just wait because there is no Godot, so don’t wait. We have to do it right now with our forces against this barbarity.

QUESTION

Professor I agree completely we have to put our troops in Ukrainian grounds and so far as we have seen in the US has said no and from what we can hear here, all the other European countries are following the same line. They are moving their forces at the borders. We are supplying to the Ukrainians, no one has stepped on the ground nor are they even saying that they’ll initiate a no-fly zone.

ANSWER

I will say it very simply and you will be surprised. It’s just a question of time and Time is with us so we will do it but we have to be prepared and in this preparation we also to prepare our mentation. How are we thinking about this war, this barbarity against Mankind and not just a local problem in Ukraine. It is a real survival problem for Europe because we also have some problems and you know it with its nuclear station. There are 10 in Ukraine, so when I see Russian soldiers do what they have done to the nuclear station we have to protect, not only Ukraine but Europe and Mankind.

Mr. Nikos Lygeros thank you so much for this opportunity once again to give us an insight i to what is happening in Europe at the moment. This has been fantastic, it’s great giving that little golden nugget of truth that we ‘ve been looking for. I hope we can do this again very soon. I’m sure we have a flood of questions coming your way and I’m looking forward to hearing you once again as we all do.